Dwindling robusta supplies are pushing robusta prices higher

March arabica coffee is down -1.60 (-0.84%), and Mar ICE robusta coffee is up +12 (+0.37%).

Coffee prices on Thursday are mixed.  A rebound in ICE arabica coffee inventories to a 2-1/4 month high has eased supply concerns and is weighing on arabica prices.  However, dwindling robusta supplies are pushing robusta prices higher after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a new record low.

Low coffee inventories are bullish for coffee prices.  Today, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a record low of 2,520 lots.  ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 24-year low of 224,066 bags on November 30, although they recovered moderately to a 2-1/4 month high Tuesday at 288,745 bags.

A bearish factor for coffee was Wednesday’s report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) that showed Dec global coffee exports rose +13.6% y/y to 12.168 million bags, and from Oct-Dec global coffee exports are up +6.8% y/y at 32.419 million bags.

A negative factor for coffee was Monday’s hike by Safras & Mercado for its 2022/23 Brazil coffee crop estimate to 61.1 million bags from a previous estimate of 58.9 million bags.  Also, Brazil exporter group Comexim last Thursday raised its Brazil 2023/24 coffee export estimate to 44.9 million bags from a previous estimate of 41.5 million bags.