Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on predicted the monsoon 2018 will be normal this year.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. A normal monsoon is in the range of 96-104 per cent of the LPA. The LPA for June-September rainfall is around 887 millimetres.
This should be good news for a monsoon reliant economy like India if it is to achieve the target 8 percent GDP growth in FY19.
However this doesn’t mean farmers can rest easy. While June is likely to receive excess rainfall, there is still, on average, a 30 percent chance that the key monsoon months of July and August would see ‘below normal’ — or a greater than 10 percent deficit in their normal quotas — rains. July and August bring in half the monsoon rains and are crucial for a good harvest.
Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and south interior Karnataka may receive less rainfall
Skymet weather reports southern parts of the country are likely to see less rainfall, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and south interior Karnataka will be the ones receiving less rainfall activity.
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are also likely to see rains on the lesser side, though Telangana is likely to experience normal rainfall.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its monsoon forecast in mid-April.