India Meteorological Department (IMD) on tuesday revised its monsoon forecast to 98% of the Long Period Average (LPA).This is 2% more than the 96% or ‘near normal’ rain it had forecast in April.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General, KJ Ramesh said this rise in percentage of rainfall due to reduced chances of occurrence of an El Nino, a phenomenon associated with the heating of the Pacific waters.
IMD said rains in July and August, the most important monsoon months for the kharif crops, would be 96% and 99% and also said it would be balanced geographical distribution.
IMD’s and all weather models indicated a possibility of an El-Nino,expected to surface in the later half of the monsoon, would now be much weaker than anticipated.
“A weakened El Nino is largely why we expect better rains” – Madhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Earth Sciences Ministry.
In April, the IMD had said there was a 38% chance of near normal rains (96% of the LPA). Now the models showed a 50% chance.
El-Nino is phenomena associated with heating up of the Pacific waters and is believed to have an adverse impact on the southwest monsoon.