The east-west shear zone now runs roughly along Lat. 10°N between 3.1 & 3.6 km above mean sea level across extreme South peninsula. A feeble off shore trough has formed along the west coast and likely to persist there. In association with these favourable conditions, Southwest Monsoon is very likely to set in over Kerala during next 24 hours.
Monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala during next 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/3g2OeO5tFm
— India Met. Dept. (@Indiametdept) June 7, 2019
A low pressure area is very likely to form over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea off Kerala-Karnataka coast around 9th June. It is likely to
move north-northwestwards and intensify gradually.
Conditions are likely to become favourable for advance of southwest monsoon into some parts of Northeastern states during next 48 hours.
India Met Department (IMD) has declared a series of ‘orange’ and ‘yellow’ alerts in Kerala on Sunday and Monday (June 9 and 10) indicating the possibility of heavy to very heavy rain ahead of monsoon onset.
The ‘orange alert’ is valid on Sunday for the southern districts of Kollam and Alappuzha, with isolated heavy to very rain (between 11.5 cm and 20 cm), a special bulletin issued by the local office of the IMD said.
“In the wake of a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep area, a Low-Pressure Area is expected to develop over Southeast Arabian sea in the next 48 hours. Thus, rains over Kerala will intensity significantly by tomorrow (Saturday). Few heavy to very heavy spells are also possible at a few places. Vigorous rainfall activities are expected over Kerala in the next four to five days,” private weather forecaster Skymet said.