Arabica Coffee Falls Back while Robusta posted a new high

Coffee prices on Thursday settled mixed. Arabica fell back from a new 10-1/4 year nearest-futures high, while robusta posted a new 4-week high. Arabica was under pressure Thursday on signs of increased selling by Brazil’s coffee producers after Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s coffee producers sold 83% of their 2021/22 arabica coffee crop as of Feb 8, ahead of the 5-year average of 78%.

March arabica coffee on Thursday closed down -3.15 (-1.22%), and Mar ICE Robusta coffee closed up +9 (+0.40%).

Coffee prices thursday morning initially moved higher on dwindling global coffee supplies after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories Thursday fell to a 22-year low of 1.035 mln bags.   Also, ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 3-1/4 year low of 9,039 lots Thursday.

Global coffee supplies are tightening after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Tuesday cut its 2020/21 global coffee surplus estimate to 1.20 mln bags from a Jan estimate of 2.41 mln bags.  The ICO also reported 2021/22 global coffee exports from Oct 1-Dec 31 fell -1.6% y/y to 31.289 mln bags.